Key Points
- To examine the global heterogeneity of hip fracture probability using regional incidence and mortality estimates to guide adjustments to clinical intervention thresholds.
- Calculated 10-year hip fracture probabilities at 10-year intervals starting at age 50, alongside lifetime risks at age 50, using hip fracture and mortality hazard functions.
- Standardized 10-year probabilities against Swedish reference data (set at 1.0) and stratified countries into very high, high, medium, and low-risk tiers.
- Lifetime risk at age 50 ranged from 1.0% in Turkish women to 28.5% in Swedish women, with strong correlation between female and male lifetime risks (r = 0.83).
- Standardized 10-year fracture probabilities exhibited a 15-fold spread, spanning from 1.24 in Norway to 0.08 in Chile.
- Risk categorization grouped nations from very high risk (Norway, Iceland, Sweden, Denmark, US) to low risk (Turkey, Korea, Venezuela, Chile), enabling population-tailored risk thresholds.
Structured PICO
PPopulationMen and women from the age of 50 years across multiple countries
OOutcome10-year probability and lifetime risk of hip fracture
There is a 15-fold variation in 10-year hip fracture probability across countries, suggesting intervention thresholds should be adjusted based on regional risk.