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The atrophy of vigilance hypothesis predicts that the organisations responsible for the management of hazardous systems will, over time, gradually weaken their safeguards against risk in those systems. The vigilance hypothesis is examined here through a case study of an environmentally hazardous system; the marine oil trade in Alaska. Contrary to the predictions of the hypothesis, the results demonstrate that safeguards in this system have been steadily strengthened (rather than weakened) throughout the study period. The results suggest that laws and institutions can be devised to promote an evolution (rather than an atrophy) of vigilance in hazardous systems.
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George J. Busenberg (1999) studied this question.
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