Beyond the Mobilization–Participation Paradox: Conditional Hybrid Escalation and Institutional Change in India's 2026 Cockroach Janta Party Movement

This paper undertakes exploratory theory building via deviant case process tracing to address a persistent gap in the digital activism literature. A “Mobilization–Participation Paradox” characterises much empirical work, high online engagement frequently fails to produce measurable institutional outcomes. This paper develops a Conditional Hybrid Escalation (CHE) Model to identify the conditions under which this paradox may be overcome. The model proposes that institutional concessions are significantly more likely when five conditions converge: (1) Acute shared material grievances with a named accountable actor (2) Potent symbolic identity reclamation of a delegitimizing label (3) Algorithmic amplification of high arousal content (4) Hybrid organizational capacity bridging digital coordination with sustained offline occupation and (5) A temporarily favorable political opportunity window. The model is developed and initially tested through an in-depth process-tracing analysis of India’s 2026 Cockroach Janta Party (CJP) movement. Comparative calibration against the Indian anti-CAA movement, farmer’s protests, Bangladesh’s July 2024 uprising and Nepal’s September 2025 protests provides preliminary support. The paper identifies AI-assisted rapid identity construction as a novel mechanism and concludes with limitations and directions for future research.