Assessing the Threat of Mineral Depletion

The debate over the long-run availability of mineral commodities remains today as polarized as it was 30 years ago. This partly reflects the two very different paradigms often used to assess this threat, which can lead to sharply contrasting conclusions. In addition, the uncertainties regarding future developments in mineral supply and demand, which will govern the course of real mineral prices, are great. The geological unknowns are particularly a problem in this regard. Finally, mineral commodity prices reflect only those social costs that producers pay. Just how much greater prices would be - and how their trends over time would be altered - if prices reflected the full social costs of production and use is unknown. The available estimates vary greatly, and often reflect the values of individuals and groups rather than those of society as a whole. In light of the last two uncertainties, we simply do not know whether mineral commodities will become more or less available in the long run. The optimists cannot prove the pessimists wrong, nor can the pessimists prove the optimists wrong. So perhaps the most reliable prediction about the future threat of mineral depletion is that the debate will continue.