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The current state of the art of technology forecasting (TF) is critically reviewed. A statement of the aims of TF, which distinguish it from futurology, a brief history and a summary of the basic principles are provided. The last includes the technological escalation, technological succession, societal impact and methods of quantification. TF techniques are divided into two pairs of classes: extrapolative versus normative and single‐variable versus multivariable. Each is critically evaluated in terms of its potential applicability and reliability. Substitution analysis, Delphi techniques, cross impact analysis and morphological analysis are treated in some detail. It is concluded that some form of TF is essential to the success of strategic planning and its use will undoubtedly increase in the future.
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J. G. Wissema (1982) studied this question.
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