We model and forecast the early evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil Brazilian recent data from February 25, 2020 to March 30, 2020. This period accounts for unawareness of the epidemiological characteristics of disease in a new territory, sub-notification of the real numbers of people and the timely introduction of social distancing policies to the spread of the disease. We use two variations of the SIR model and include a parameter that comprises the effects of social distancing. Short and long term forecasts show that the social distancing policy by the government is able to flatten the pattern of infection of the-19. However, our results also show that if this policy does not last time, it is only able to shift the peak of infection into the future the value of the peak in almost the same value. Furthermore, our long simulations forecast the optimal date to end the policy. Finally, we show the proportion of asymptomatic individuals affects the amplitude of the of symptomatic infected, suggesting that it is important to test the.
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Bastos et al. (2020) studied this question.