The Ethiopia Food Crisis--Uses and Limits of Climate Forecasts

Famine has long been recognized as caused by a range of natural and sociopolitical factors, although fluctuations in rainfall have often been critical (1, 2). Advances in our ability to predict seasonal-to-interannual climate, particularly the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), have therefore led to optimism about the potential for seasonal forecasts to contribute to greater food security in many regions of the world (3). Here, we show that even good climate forecasts are not a panacea by examining the food crisis that currently threatens 16 million people in Ethiopia and its neighboring countries in the Greater Horn of Africa. This review of the Ethiopian food crisis and of some of the challenges facing seasonal forecasting is sobering and underscores the need to foster more realistic expectations among both policy-makers and scientists about the uses and limits of seasonal climate forecasts in alleviating complex social problems.