Risk prediction score for clinical outcome in atrial fibrillation and stable coronary artery disease

Figures

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  Figure 1. Study flow chart. Study design for the development and validation of the machine learning-based risk score model. AFIRE, Atrial Fibrillation and Ischaemic Events With Rivaroxaban.

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  Figure 2. The machine learning-based New Risk Score for NACE incidence and the three risk groups. The bar graph shows the incidence rate of NACE among the three risk groups in the development and validation cohorts. AF, atrial fibrillation; BMI, body mass index; DOAC, direct oral anticoagulant; NACE, net adverse clinical event; SBP, systolic blood pressure.

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  Figure 3. The ROC curves for the machine learning-based risk score for predicting NACE incidence. The AUC (95% CI) of the risk score in the (A) development and (B) validation cohorts is shown. AUC, area under the curve; NACE, net adverse clinical events; ROC, receiver operating curve.

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  Figure 4. Kaplan-Meier curves of NACE according to the three risk groups. Patients with AF and stable CAD were stratified into three risk groups according to their risk score for NACE. Kaplan-Meier curves show the cumulative incidence of NACE among the three risk groups in the (A) development and (B) validation cohorts. AF, atrial fibrillation; CAD, coronary artery disease; NACE, net adverse clinical event.

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  Figure 5. Decision curves for the new and conventional risk scores. (A) Decision curves for the new and conventional (CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED scores) risk scores to predict NACE incidence in patients with AF and stable CAD. (B) A 10-fold cross-validated decision curve for the new risk score to obtain a bias-corrected decision curve. AF, atrial fibrillation; CAD, coronary artery disease; NACE, net adverse clinical event; CHADS2, Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age ≥75 y, Diabetes mellitus, Stroke or TIA; CHA2DS2-VASc, Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age ≥75 y, Diabetes mellitus, Stroke or TIA, Vascular disease, Age 65-74 y, Sex category [female]; HAS-BLED, Hypertension, Abnormal renal/liver function, Stroke, Bleeding, Labile INR, Elderly, Drugs.