Key result
A 4-variable clinical prediction model predicted life-threatening ventricular arrhythmias in patients with ARVC with an optimism-corrected C-index of 0.74 (95% CI, 0.69-0.80).
Why the study?
Existing models predicting sustained ventricular arrhythmias in ARVC may overestimate sudden cardiac death risk, warranting a model specifically predicting life-threatening ventricular arrhythmias.
Can a clinical prediction model accurately predict life-threatening ventricular arrhythmias in patients with arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy?
Population
864 patients with definite ARVC from 15 centers in North America and Europe
Comparison
8 prespecified clinical predictors of life-threatening ventricular arrhythmias
Design
Multicenter retrospective cohort study
Follow-up
5.75 years (interquartile range, 2.77–10.58)
Authors
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May aid LTVA risk stratification in ARVC with 4 predictors; leaves open external validation before guiding practice.
Cohort (n=864)
Yes
Can a clinical prediction model accurately predict life-threatening ventricular arrhythmias in patients with arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy?
Effect estimate: C-index 0.74 (95% CI 0.69-0.80)
A simple 4-variable clinical model can predict life-threatening ventricular arrhythmias in patients with ARVC, while prior sustained VA and extent of functional heart disease were not predictive.
Cadrin‐Tourigny et al. (2020) conducted a cohort in Arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC) (n=864). 4-variable clinical prediction model (younger age, male sex, premature ventricular complex count, and number of leads with T-wave inversion) was evaluated on Life-threatening ventricular arrhythmias (LTVA) (C-index 0.74, 95% CI 0.69-0.80). A 4-variable clinical prediction model predicted life-threatening ventricular arrhythmias in patients with ARVC with an optimism-corrected C-index of 0.74 (95% CI, 0.69-0.80).
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