Strategy of Underground Construction Planning Based on Cognitive Modeling Methodology

Strategy to planning urban underground construction is considered as a tool for sustainable development concept for megapolises. The cognitive methodology, which is viewed as a decision-making process regarding behavior of complex systems in desirable future, is proposed for evaluating prospects of urban underground construction. Introducing disturbances to the vertices, the decision-maker is looking for the answer to the question: “What will happen if ...?” The conducted studies using this methodology allowed to propose a number of scenarios for assessing advisability of underground construction, considering highlighted groups of geological and technogenic factors, uncertainties of various nature and risk factor groups. The employed technique is a new tool for evaluating various risks, likelihoods of negative scenarios and related additional expenses, as early as a pre-project stage of underground construction.