Challenges and prospects of achieving India’s 2070 Net Zero Target

When addressing the issue of global climate change, it is crucial to focus on the energy strategies of developing nations, which are predominantly aimed at fostering economic development. India, a major emerging economy and one of the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitting countries, represents a crucial case for climate change policy research. This study examines India’s prospects of reaching carbon neutrality by 2070 and the obstacles to achieving this goal by looking at main socio-economic and institutional factors. Although existing studies provide extensive qualitative analysis of the phenomena in question, the quantitative assessment of their external drivers remains limited. The study addresses this gap by conducting an econometric analysis of selected factors and by introducing middle-class income as a new explanatory variable for India’s long-term emission trends. Methodologically, the research employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to examine the dynamic impact of the selected factors on the intensity of India’s aggregate emissions. The proposed explanatory variables include: the share of forest cover; the share of renewable energy in electricity generation; and the income of the middle-class in India. The analysis shows that each of these factors has a significant impact on the dependent variable. This impact can be immediate or delayed, and it can vary in magnitude and direction. The influence of middle-class income dynamics seems to be the least consistent, while the expansion of renewable energy in electricity generation shows the most pronounced delayed effect. The findings reveal contradictions between national climate policies and socio-economic priorities. They highlight the challenge of balancing low-carbon goals with rapid economic growth and demographic change.