Civil Conflicts as a Constraint to Regional Economic Integration in Africa

Regional economic integration is crucial for African countries, notably since they are characterized by small domestic markets. In this paper, we analyze how civil conflicts affect the economic fate of regional economic communities through its effect on the synchronicity of regional partners’ economies. We find that conflict decreases business cycle synchronicity when it occurs within a regional economic community, both for the directly affected countries and for their more peaceful regional peers. We therefore find an additional reason to recommend putting prevention and resolution of civil conflicts on the top of the political agenda of African RECs.