Monetary policy, inflation outlook, and recession probabilities

Why does the short-term slope of the yield curve predict recessions?We explore the economic forces underlying Treasury yields' fluctuations and highlight the roles of a tight monetary policy stance and expectations of lower inflation in predicting downturns.While the monetary policy stance is still accommodative, indicating a low recession probability, the negative inflation slope points to higher odds of a recession within a year.An aggressive removal of policy accommodation increases the recession probability to 60%.