Les crises démographiques en France à la fin du XVIIe et au XVIIIe siècle : un essai de mesure

J.P. Chevet. The demographic crises in France at the End of the XVIIe century and during the XVIIIe century : an attempt of measurement. This papers offers a more convenient method for detecting the demographic crises than those in use till now. Founded on the ARIMA model, it gibes an estimation of the amplitude of the deviation due to the crises, these crises being understood as external shocks. An application from French demographic series of the 1670-1789 period illustrates the method and helps to tackle the questions related to the various interpretations of Malthus's theory. The matter of the post-crisis recovery is dealt with, and its effects on the variations of the age of the first marriage.