Dynamic Predictive Models of Cardiogenic Shock in STEMI: Focus on Interventional and Critical Care Phases

Background: While early risk stratification in STEMI is essential, the threat of cardiogenic shock (CS) persists after revascularization due to reperfusion injury and evolving instability. However, risk prediction in later phases—after revascularization—is less explored, despite its importance in guiding intensive care decisions. This study evaluates machine learning (ML) models for dynamic risk assessment in interventional cardiology and cardiac intensive care unit (CICU) phases, where timely detection of deterioration can guide treatment escalation. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed clinical and procedural data from 158 patients diagnosed with STEMI complicated by cardiogenic shock, treated between 2019 and 2022 at the Cardiology Department of the University Emergency Hospital of Bucharest, Romania. Machine learning models—Random Forest (RF), and Quadratic Discriminant Analysis (QDA)—were developed and tested specifically for the interventional cardiology and CICU phases. Model performance was evaluated using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC-AUC), accuracy (ACC), sensitivity, specificity, and F1-score. Results: In the interventional phase, RF and QDA achieved the highest accuracy, both reaching 87.50%. In the CICU, RF and QDA demonstrate the best performance, reaching ACCs of 0.843. QDA maintained consistent performance across phases. Relevant predictors included reperfusion strategy, TIMI flow before percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), Killip class, creatinine, and Creatine Kinase Index (CKI)—all parameters routinely assessed in STEMI patients. These models effectively identified patients at risk for post-reperfusion complications and hemodynamic decline, supporting decisions regarding extended monitoring and ICU-level care. Conclusions: Predictive models implemented in advanced STEMI phases can contribute to dynamic, phase-specific risk reassessment and optimize CICU resource allocation. These findings support the integration of ML-based tools into post-PCI workflows, enabling earlier detection of clinical decline and more efficient deployment of intensive care resources. When combined with earlier-stage models, the inclusion of interventional and CICU phases forms a dynamic, end-to-end risk assessment framework. With further refinement, this system could be implemented as a mobile application to support clinical decisions throughout the STEMI care continuum.