Industrial upgrading and the quality of migrant labour: spatial inequality, digital transformation, and policy pathways in contemporary China

This article examines how industrial upgrading shapes the employment quality of China’s internal migrants (over 370 million). Using a 2011–2018 panel of 249 cities, we construct a multi-dimensional employment quality index and estimate spatial econometric models to capture spillovers and heterogeneity. Industrial upgrading is associated with higher employment quality on average, but gains are uneven, concentrating in coastal and digitally advanced cities and accruing less to vulnerable migrant subgroups and lagging regions. Manufacturing upgrading increases earnings and job stability yet tends to worsen working conditions, whereas services upgrading strengthens job security but may depress pay. Mediation tests indicate that policy support, digital infrastructure, and local innovation ecosystems are pivotal in converting upgrading into inclusive improvements. The findings call for justice-oriented, group-sensitive industrial and labour policies so that structural transformation yields equitable and sustainable employment gains.