The fundamentals in US presidential elections: Public opinion, the economy and incumbency in the 2004 presidential election

Presidential elections are largely structured by certain fundamentals that are in place before the campaigns begin. These are the public’s opinion about the in‐party and the candidate choice, the general state of the election‐year economy, and incumbency. This trinity of fundamentals have in various ways been incorporated into statistical models that accurately forecast the major party division of the popular vote well before Election Day. This article examines the historical associations between several indicators of these fundamental forces and the national vote. It also examines the state of these indicators in the 2004 presidential election. They indicate that the fundamentals leading into the 2004 campaign generally favoured George W. Bush and anticipated his re‐election.