Valence strategies and polling support during electoral campaigns

Valence issues play a central role in electoral competition, yet less is known about whether emphasizing valence during campaigns is associated with shifts in party support, and under what conditions such associations are strongest. This paper asks whether campaign valence appeals relate to polling support and whether those associations vary by ideological moderation and programmatic blurring. The analysis uses a panel dataset covering 57 parties in 11 elections across 8 European countries between 2014 and 2019, combining valence statements from the Comparative Campaign Dynamics Dataset with daily polling data. Fixed-effects panel models estimate within-party polling dynamics during campaigns. Character-based valence statements are positively associated with polling support in the baseline models, whereas policy-based and positional statements show no consistent baseline association. Evidence for ideological moderation is tentative: character valence is more positively associated with polling support among parties that moved toward the ideological center. A key divergence emerges when accounting for programmatic blurring: policy-valence becomes more positively associated with polling support as blurring increases, while the positive association of character appeals weakens. Overall, the findings show that the polling associations of valence strategies depend on both message type and positional context.