Assessing Earthquake Hazard Map Performance for Natural and Induced Seismicity in the Central and Eastern United States

Research Article| December 06, 2017 Assessing Earthquake Hazard Map Performance for Natural and Induced Seismicity in the Central and Eastern United States Edward M. Brooks; Edward M. Brooks aDepartment of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Northwestern University, 2145 Sheridan Road, Evanston, Illinois 60208 U.S.A, eddie@earth.northwestern.edudAlso at Institute for Policy Research, Northwestern University, 2040 Sheridan Road, Evanston, Illinois 60208 U.S.A. Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Seth Stein; Seth Stein aDepartment of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Northwestern University, 2145 Sheridan Road, Evanston, Illinois 60208 U.S.A, eddie@earth.northwestern.edudAlso at Institute for Policy Research, Northwestern University, 2040 Sheridan Road, Evanston, Illinois 60208 U.S.A. Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Bruce D. Spencer; Bruce D. Spencer bDepartment of Statistics, Northwestern University, 2006 Sheridan Road, Evanston, Illinois 60208 U.S.A.dAlso at Institute for Policy Research, Northwestern University, 2040 Sheridan Road, Evanston, Illinois 60208 U.S.A. Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Leah Salditch; Leah Salditch aDepartment of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Northwestern University, 2145 Sheridan Road, Evanston, Illinois 60208 U.S.A, eddie@earth.northwestern.edu Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Mark D. Petersen; Mark D. Petersen cU.S. Geological Survey, MS 966, Box 25046, Golden, Colorado 80225 U.S.A. Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Daniel E. McNamara Daniel E. McNamara cU.S. Geological Survey, MS 966, Box 25046, Golden, Colorado 80225 U.S.A. Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Author and Article Information Edward M. Brooks aDepartment of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Northwestern University, 2145 Sheridan Road, Evanston, Illinois 60208 U.S.A, eddie@earth.northwestern.edudAlso at Institute for Policy Research, Northwestern University, 2040 Sheridan Road, Evanston, Illinois 60208 U.S.A. Seth Stein aDepartment of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Northwestern University, 2145 Sheridan Road, Evanston, Illinois 60208 U.S.A, eddie@earth.northwestern.edudAlso at Institute for Policy Research, Northwestern University, 2040 Sheridan Road, Evanston, Illinois 60208 U.S.A. Bruce D. Spencer bDepartment of Statistics, Northwestern University, 2006 Sheridan Road, Evanston, Illinois 60208 U.S.A.dAlso at Institute for Policy Research, Northwestern University, 2040 Sheridan Road, Evanston, Illinois 60208 U.S.A. Leah Salditch aDepartment of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Northwestern University, 2145 Sheridan Road, Evanston, Illinois 60208 U.S.A, eddie@earth.northwestern.edu Mark D. Petersen cU.S. Geological Survey, MS 966, Box 25046, Golden, Colorado 80225 U.S.A. Daniel E. McNamara cU.S. Geological Survey, MS 966, Box 25046, Golden, Colorado 80225 U.S.A. Publisher: Seismological Society of America First Online: 06 Dec 2017 Online Issn: 1938-2057 Print Issn: 0895-0695 © Seismological Society of America Seismological Research Letters (2018) 89 (1): 118–126. https://doi.org/10.1785/0220170124 Article history First Online: 06 Dec 2017 Cite View This Citation Add to Citation Manager Share Icon Share Facebook Twitter LinkedIn MailTo Tools Icon Tools Get Permissions Search Site Citation Edward M. Brooks, Seth Stein, Bruce D. Spencer, Leah Salditch, Mark D. Petersen, Daniel E. McNamara; Assessing Earthquake Hazard Map Performance for Natural and Induced Seismicity in the Central and Eastern United States. Seismological Research Letters 2017;; 89 (1): 118–126. doi: https://doi.org/10.1785/0220170124 Download citation file: Ris (Zotero) Refmanager EasyBib Bookends Mendeley Papers EndNote RefWorks BibTex toolbar search Search Dropdown Menu toolbar search search input Search input auto suggest filter your search All ContentBy SocietySeismological Research Letters Search Advanced Search ABSTRACT Seismicity in the central United States has dramatically increased since 2008, due in large part to the injection of wastewater produced by oil and gas extraction. In response to this phenomenon, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) created a one‐year probabilistic hazard model and map for 2016 to portray the increased hazard posed to the central and eastern United States. Using the intensity of shaking reported to the "Did You Feel It?" (DYFI) system during 2016, we assessed the performance of this model using a metric that compared the fraction of sites at which the maximum shaking exceeded the mapped value to the fraction that had been expected. These fractions are similar for both the central and eastern United States as a whole, as well as for the region within this area with the highest amount of seismicity ‐ Oklahoma and its surrounding area. We observe the greatest mismatch in northern Texas, with hazard overstated, presumably because lower oil and gas prices and regulatory action reduced the water injection volume relative to that of the previous year. We also assessed the model using a misfit metric that compares the spatial patterns of predicted and maximum observed shaking. This hazard map performs better by both metrics than other hazard maps we have studied. These results imply that such hazard maps can be valuable tools for policy makers and regulators in attempts to manage the seismic risks associated with unconventional oil and gas production. You do not have access to this content, please speak to your institutional administrator if you feel you should have access.