Techno-Spatial and Economic Assessment of Rooftop Versus Land-Based Photovoltaic Deployment in a Biodiversity-Sensitive Region of the Mexican Caribbean

Solar photovoltaic (PV) expansion in fast-growing tropical regions requires engineering-based frameworks that compare deployment pathways in terms of electricity generation, spatial footprint, and economic performance. This study develops a techno-spatial and economic assessment of rooftop versus land-based PV deployment in a biodiversity-sensitive region of the Mexican Caribbean. The novelty lies in linking the technical, spatial, ecological, and financial dimensions of rooftop and land-based PV deployment within a single place-based framework. The framework uses a common annual electricity-output basis and integrates three modules: rooftop PV technical potential estimated from housing-census data and conservative performance assumptions; an equivalent-generation land-based PV counterfactual to estimate spatial footprint and conditional ecological exposure; and a household-scale discounted cash-flow assessment under Mexico’s subsidized residential tariff category 1C and high-consumption residential tariff (DAC, Doméstica de Alto Consumo). Under baseline assumptions, rooftop PV could provide approximately 227 megawatt-peak (MWp) of installed capacity and 330 gigawatt-hours per year (GWh yr−1) without additional land occupation. Producing the same output through land-based PV would require about 486 hectares (ha) and, under a forest-overlap scenario, could imply 89,600–95,300 tonnes of carbon dioxide (t CO2) in potential conversion-related emissions. Rooftop PV showed positive economic performance under both tariffs, with stronger returns under DAC conditions. The study provides a bounded engineering-oriented comparison of PV deployment pathways rather than predictions of siting, land conversion, or adoption.