Key result
Gross domestic product and average BMI per country were the strongest predictors of COVID-19-related deaths, with correlation coefficients of 0.65 and 0.43, respectively.
Why the study?
Visual examination of the world map shows a wide variation of COVID-19 death tolls between countries, motivating a study to determine the best predictors of this discrepancy.
Observational
Effect estimate: R = 0.65 for GDP, R = 0.43 for BMI
p-value: p=<0.001
Country-level average BMI and GDP are strongly correlated with COVID-19 mortality rates, potentially reflecting the impact of obesity-related inflammation and comorbidities.
Hypothesis-generating for population BMI in COVID mortality; requires individual-level confirmation before clinical translation.
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is the largest outbreak to strike the world since the Spanish flu in 1918. Visual examination of the world map shows a wide variation of death tolls between countries. The main goal of our series is to determine the best predictors of such discrepancy. METHODS: This is a retrospective study in which the rate of COVID-19 deaths was correlated with each of the following independent variables: total tests per 1 million population, gross domestic product (GDP), average temperatures per country, ultraviolet index, median age, average BMI per country, food supply, Bacille Calmette-Guerin compulsory status, and passenger traffic. RESULTS: = 0.65. CONCLUSION: This article shows a tight correlation between average BMI, food supply per country, and COVID-19-related deaths. Such predisposing factors might operate by upregulating the inflammation pathway in heavily struck countries, leading to easier triggering of the infamous cytokine storm syndrome. Obesity also increases cardiovascular and respiratory morbidities, which are coupled to increased ICU demand and deaths among infected cases.Video abstract: http://links.lww.com/CAEN/A25.
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AbdelMassih et al. (2020) conducted an observational in COVID-19. Country-level predictors (GDP, BMI, food supply) was evaluated on Correlation with COVID-19 deaths per 1 million population (R = 0.65 for GDP, R = 0.43 for BMI, p=<0.001). Gross domestic product and average BMI per country were the strongest predictors of COVID-19-related deaths, with correlation coefficients of 0.65 and 0.43, respectively.
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