A novel model forecasting perioperative red blood cell transfusion

We aimed to establish a predictive model assessing perioperative blood transfusion risk using a nomogram. Clinical data for 97,443 surgery patients were abstracted from the DATADRYAD website; approximately 75% of these patients were enrolled in the derivation cohort, while approximately 25% were enrolled in the validation cohort. Multivariate logical regression was used to identify predictive factors for transfusion. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration plots, and decision curves were used to assess the model performance. In total, 5888 patients received > 1 unit of red blood cells; the total transfusion rate was 6.04%. Eight variables including age, race, American Society of Anesthesiologists' Physical Status Classification (ASA-PS), grade of kidney disease, type of anaesthesia, priority of surgery, surgery risk, and an 18-level variable were included. The nomogram achieved good concordance indices of 0.870 and 0.865 in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. The Youden index identified an optimal cut-off predicted probability of 0.163 with a sensitivity of 0.821 and a specificity of 0.744. Decision curve (DCA) showed patients had a standardized net benefit in the range of a 5-60% likelihood of transfusion risk. In conclusion, a nomogram model was established to be used for risk stratification of patients undergoing surgery at risk for blood transfusion. The URLs of web calculators for our model are as follows: http://www.empowerstats.net/pmodel/?m=11633_transfusionpreiction .