An extension to fuzzy estimations and system dynamics for improving supply chains

Campuzano, Mula, and Peidro (“Fuzzy estimations and system dynamics for improving supply chains.” Fuzzy Sets and Systems 161: 1530–1542) evaluate the behaviour of fuzzy estimations of demand instead of exponential smoothing for demand forecasts in a two-level (manufacturer and end customer) supply chain and demonstrate how the bullwhip effect and the amplification of inventory variance (NSAmp) can be effectively reduced. In this note, we extend and test the previous model to a three-level supply chain which consists of an end consumer, a retailer and a manufacturer. Here, the model is tested by using both Gaussian and autoregressive demand patterns. We show that the bullwhip effect and NSAmp also reduce at the level where fuzzy orders exist with good fill rate values.