Early ASN identification and trajectories of school absence in Scotland

This paper examines how early identification of additional support needs (ASN) is associated with pupils’ school‑absence trajectories across the transition from primary into secondary school. In Scotland, special educational needs and disabilities (SEND) are referred to as ASN. ASN extend to needs resulting from social-emotional factors, family circumstances and the learning environment. Using linked administrative data, this paper analyses records from a cohort of 49,168 public‑school pupils from 2008/09 to 2018/19. Multilevel modelling estimates the overall association between ASN and school absence. Longitudinal modelling captures the change in absence over time by ASN and primary ASN category. Across the cohort, school absence follows a non-linear pattern over time. The attendance gap between pupils with and without early-identified ASN widens considerably in secondary school. This attendance gap is a result of increasing absence among those with needs relating to social-emotional factors and family circumstances, while the difference between pupils without ASN and those with learning‑environment needs narrows. Socioeconomic disadvantage moderates these trajectories: pupils registered for free school meals (FSM) have a higher level of absence throughout school education, leading to a smaller additional ASN effect. Among non-FSM pupils, the ASN-related attendance gap becomes more pronounced over time.