Governing at Arm’s Length: The Security Assistance Provider’s Dilemma

Under what circumstances does security assistance (SA) produce effective outcomes? This article develops a typological theory of SA effectiveness, adapting the Competence–Control (CC) framework to military assistance. It argues that SA outcomes depend on whether providers prioritise recipient competence or control, and whether the strategic environment supports either. This yields three ideal-type outcomes: cooptation, orchestration, and breakdown. First, the article reviews scholarship on SA. Second, it adapts CC theory to SA. Third, it assesses the plausibility of the mechanisms through three illustrative cases, offering a structured basis for evaluating SA as indirect governance.