Visualizing the future of the trucking industry by identifying strategic driving variables through MICMAC analysis

Artificial intelligence, autonomous trucks, and other technologies are reshaping the trucking industry. Given trucking’s crucial role in global and domestic supply chains, understanding the strategic variables that will drive its evolution and exploring their interconnections is vital. Therefore, this study examines these strategic variables and aims to provide insights into the industry’s current landscape and potential scenarios by 2030. The study focuses on thirteen strategic variables across the political, economic, social, technological, legal, and environmental domains, using cross-impact matrix multiplication applied to a ranking (MICMAC) analysis to assess their interrelations and indirect influences. The findings reveal that adopting modern technologies, such as digitalization and artificial intelligence, will be highly influential in the future of trucking. Meanwhile, the companies’ economy will remain the most dependent variable in the system, and the influence of policy is expected to decrease into the 2030s. This research offers valuable insights for academics, policymakers, and industry stakeholders. The findings provide a roadmap for navigating industry pressures and supporting the transitions toward emerging technologies, decarbonization, and efficiency.