A Recent Reversal? Reported Human Rabies Deaths in Bangladesh, 2015-2024, and the Gap Between Forecast and Trend

Bangladesh's National Rabies Elimination Programme has pursued the global "Zero by 30" goal through mass dog vaccination and free post-exposure prophylaxis. A 2024 One Health modelling study using data through 2023 projected continued decline toward elimination. This short communication updates the trend through 2024 using WHO Global Health Observatory data (the only structured multi-year public source available), and finds a reversal: reported deaths fell to 26 in 2020 (COVID-19 era) then rose in every year through 2024 (40, 45, 47, 56) -- a 40.0% increase from 2021 to 2024 that is statistically cleaner (R2=0.933, p=0.034) than the original pre-pandemic decline it reversed. Key findings: (1) the 2024 observed value (56 deaths) exceeded the upper bound of a specific published 2024 SARIMA forecast (36) by 55.6%, at the very first forecasted year; (2) a similar post-2020 rise appears in Myanmar and the Philippines on the same WHO indicator, suggesting this is not unique to Bangladesh; (3) two of three spot-values cross-validate exactly against an independent published study; (4) population-adjusted rates confirm the reversal is not simply population growth. Data sources: WHO Global Health Observatory (indicator NTD_RAB2) and World Bank population data, both public APIs, accessed August 2026. All analysis code and data are available at: https://github.com/khalilurrrahmanridoykhan/bangladesh-rabies-2015-2024