Global patterns of melanoma, burden attributable to ultraviolet radiation exposure, and projections to 2050 across 185 countries: A population-based study with global modeling

Background: Ultraviolet radiation (UVR) is a well-established modifiable risk factor for malignant melanoma, yet global estimates of its attributable burden remain limited. Objectives: To provide up-to-date global estimates of the melanoma burden and quantify the contribution of UVR. Methods: We examined melanoma burden in 2022, the most recent ten-year trends, and projected estimates for 2050 by sex, age, and Human Development Index (HDI) using GLOBOCAN data, CI5plus, and the World Health Organization Mortality Databases. As a secondary analysis, population attributable fractions for UVR exposure were calculated for 2022 and 2050, using sex-specific reference populations with low exposure, incorporating demographic changes in the projections. Results: In 2022, an estimated 330,000 new melanoma cases were reported, with ∼88% attributable to UVR using the fifth percentile reference. Incidence, overall and UVR-attributable, was highest in high-HDI countries, especially Oceania and Northern Europe, while mortality-to-incidence ratios were highest in low-HDI settings. By 2050, UVR-attributable cases are projected to rise, with the steepest growth in low- and medium-HDI settings. Limitations: Models are subject to uncertainties in cancer registration, especially in low-HDI regions. Conclusion: Melanoma remains largely UVR-attributable, with substantial regional disparities. The projected increase in UVR-attributable melanoma burden in lower-HDI settings underscores the urgent need for region-specific prevention strategies.