Modelling expected service usage from short-term loading measurements

A methodology for estimating the long term durability of structures from short-term service loads measurements is described. The measured time history is converted into a rainflow counted histogram. A statistical technique for determining the probability density of the rainflow histogram is employed to extrapolate the short-term measured usage to the expected long-term service usage. A new loading history is then reconstructed from the expected rainflow histogram and combined with fatigue analysis to obtain an estimate of the durability of a structure.