Key result
A multivariable risk factor model successfully predicted venous thromboembolism in hospitalized medical patients, achieving a c-statistic of 0.75 (95% CI 0.71-0.78) in the validation set.
Why the study?
Can a risk factor model accurately predict venous thromboembolism in hospitalized medical patients?
Population
242,738 patients age ≥18 years, admitted to 374 US hospitals in 2004-2005, with a primary diagnosis of…
Design
Cohort, Subjects were randomly assigned to a derivation or validation set
Follow-up
Hospitalization and 30 days post-discharge
Authors
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Supports VTE risk stratification in medical inpatients; leaves open whether implementation improves prophylaxis decisions or outcomes.
Cohort (n=242,738)
Yes
Can a risk factor model accurately predict venous thromboembolism in hospitalized medical patients?
Effect estimate: c-statistic 0.75 (95% CI 0.71-0.78)
A multivariable risk factor model demonstrates good discrimination (c-statistic 0.75) for identifying hospitalized medical patients at sufficient risk for VTE to warrant pharmacologic prophylaxis.
Rothberg et al. (2011) conducted a cohort in Pneumonia, heart failure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), stroke, and urinary tract infection (n=242,738). VTE risk stratification model was evaluated on Venous thromboembolism (VTE) during hospitalization or readmission within 30 days (c-statistic 0.75, 95% CI 0.71-0.78). A multivariable risk factor model successfully predicted venous thromboembolism in hospitalized medical patients, achieving a c-statistic of 0.75 (95% CI 0.71-0.78) in the validation set.
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