Stochastic study of hourly total solar radiation in Corsica using a Markov model

The aim of this paper was to study total solar radiation using a Markov chain, with a view to setting up a solar data generator. This meteorological parameter was transformed into another, called the clearness index, and was classified into 20 states. The various transition probabilities between each state were computed. Markov chain properties were investigated and confirm the choice of a first order. The occurrence probability of same state sequences was then studied. It was shown that it can be modelled using a probability law, called the shifted negative binomial (SNB) distribution. Finally, an hourly solar data generator was set up based on these two models, and the real and simulated series from a probability point of view were compared. This confirmed a good agreement of the proposed generator to obtain a typical meteorological year for solar data.