Temperature Biases in Public Opinion Surveys

The quasi experiment of deviations from normal temperatures shows how local temperature conditions bias selected survey results. Responses in eight CBS News surveys from 2001 to 2007 change with the weather, with unseasonable temperatures reducing concern about climate change and unusually warm temperatures increasing presidential approval. Unusual temperatures also influence who answers surveys; wealthier respondents are overrepresented in warmer conditions. These results jointly suggest that surveys are at risk for temperature-induced response bias. Weighting-based methods can account for survey results’ temperature-induced differences in samples.