Identifying spatio-temporal changes and driving factors of the water-ecology-economy system resilience in the water-receiving area of the Lower Yellow River

Enhancing the resilience of water-ecology-economy system (WEES) and clarifying improvement pathways are essential for achieving ecological conservation and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin. Taking 23 cities in the water-receiving area of the Lower Yellow River (LYR) as the research subject, we constructed a WEES resilience evaluation indicator system. The resilience development index (RDI) was assessed utilizing a three-dimensional space vector model. Kernel density estimation and Moran's I methods were employed to explore its spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and spatial correlation levels. Furthermore, social network analysis (SNA) was applied to reveal the interactive relationships among various influencing factors. The results showed that (1) the resilience of the water-receiving area of the LYR exhibited a fluctuating upward trend, with the RDI increased from 0.57 to 0.66. The adaptation dimension presented high resilience levels, ranging from 0.52 to 0.58. Cities with high RDI are primarily clustered within Shandong Province, such as Jinan, Dongying, Tai'an, etc. (2) The overall resilience of the water-receiving area of the LYR exhibited a "main peak shifts to the right" pattern, with rising peak values and gradually narrowing disparities. Regional differences in WEES resilience levels were progressively diminishing year by year. (3) The resilience of WEES in the water-receiving area of the LYR exhibited positive spatial correlation and localized spatial auto-correlation. (4) The water system is the primary factor hindering the WEES resilience in the water-receiving area of the LYR. Key factors include matching coefficient of water and GDP (C27), water resources utilization rate (C25), matching coefficient of water and land (C28), and per capita GDP (C9). In light of the limited water diversion from the Yellow River, local governments ought to place greater emphasis on enhancing water use efficiency. This study provides decision-making references for regional sustainable development.