Habitat characterization and climate-driven niche shifts of Vampyrodes bats reveal contrasting futures for V. major and V. caraccioli

Frugivorous bats of the genus Vampyrodes (Phyllostomidae) play a vital ecological role through seed dispersal and habitat maintenance in Neotropical forests. However, they are increasingly threatened by habitat loss and climate change. This study examined the current and potential future distributions of V. major and V. caraccioli to assess their ecological requirements and evaluate conservation challenges. We compiled occurrence records from literature and databases, selecting relevant climatic variables to develop environmental niche models using the Maxent algorithm. Model performance was optimized by comparing multiple parameter combinations and validated through established statistical criteria. V. major shows relatively stable climatic suitability areas under both low-emission (SSP1-2.6) and high-emission (SSP5-8.5) scenarios, suggesting broader climatic niche breadth. By contrast, V. caraccioli faces substantial losses of climatically suitable areas – up to 50 % in the most extreme emission scenario – especially in the Amazon basin. The projected reduction of climatic suitability within protected areas further highlights the vulnerability of V. caraccioli, raising concerns about their long-term viability and the potential disruptions to seed dispersal networks. Conversely, while V. major retains climatically suitable areas in protected zones, ongoing deforestation and fragmentation remain significant threats. These findings underscore the importance of formulating differentiated conservation strategies for each species. Specifically, bolstering corridor networks, preserving intact forest patches, and developing climate change mitigation policies are critical to safeguarding these bats' ecological functions. By providing a clearer understanding of present and future distributional patterns, this study aims to guide more effective, science-based management of Vampyrodes species across their geographic range.