The BodyRange State Engine: A Weekly Indicator-Free Framework for Bitcoin Exposure Management

The BodyRange State Engine (BRSE) is a deterministic, long-only, indicator-free framework designed to organize Bitcoin exposure and non-exposure using completed weekly candle-body information. BRSE updates an internal finite-state market representation only after completion of each weekly bar and produces one of three decision-support outputs: BUY, SELL, or NO ACTION. The engine excludes candle wicks, incomplete weekly observations, future information, and conventional derived technical indicators from its operational decision path. Exact state-transition predicates, body-range construction procedures, and BUY and SELL generation rules remain proprietary. The empirical study uses author-generated TradingView Strategy Tester diagnostics on weekly INDEX:BTCUSD under a signal-close execution convention, an initial capital of 10,000 USD, full-equity compounding while exposed, zero commission, zero slippage, no leverage, and no pyramiding. Two evaluation windows are reported separately. Over the full-history 2011–2026 window, BRSE generated an endpoint net PnL of 79,307,560.57 USD, compared with 98,283,060.00 USD for continuous Bitcoin buy-and-hold. Buy-and-hold therefore produced the larger endpoint outcome over the complete historical window. Over the 2020–2026 modern-cycle window, BRSE generated an endpoint net PnL of 128,515.07 USD, compared with 122,939.00 USD for calendar-aligned Bitcoin buy-and-hold, producing a positive endpoint difference of 5,576.07 USD. The results are therefore window-dependent. BRSE is not presented as universally superior to continuous Bitcoin buy-and-hold. Instead, the diagnostics illustrate the potential benefits and opportunity costs of deterministic selective exposure across different Bitcoin market environments. Selected case studies further demonstrate SELL, BUY, failed re-entry, and continued non-exposure behavior without claiming prediction of pandemics, exchange failures, fraud, news events, or future market direction. The paper provides a public, non-replicating methodological description of BRSE together with coded TradingView diagnostics. The results have not been independently verified and do not constitute evidence of capacity-realistic institutional performance, guaranteed future returns, perfect market timing, or universal market superiority. Version 1.1 — Benchmark Audit CorrectionThis version corrects the Bitcoin buy-and-hold benchmark used in the 2020–2026 evaluation. The revised benchmark applies the stated calendar boundaries independently of the BRSE transaction path. The BRSE implementation, completed trade sequence, strategy metrics, and reported net PnL remain unchanged. Appendix A has also been added to report the completed BRSE trades for the 2020–2026 evaluation window.