A multi-method framework for prioritizing risk appetite drivers in construction megaprojects of emerging economies

Risk appetite plays a critical role in strategic decision-making and project selection in construction megaprojects, particularly in emerging economies characterized by institutional uncertainty, financial volatility, and stakeholder complexity. Although recent research acknowledges that risk perceptions evolve across the project life cycle and that uncertainties should be assessed dynamically, limited understanding remains of how interdependent organizational, behavioral, and environmental drivers collectively shape risk appetite in megaproject selection. This study develops a systems-based framework to identify, model, and prioritize key drivers shaping organizational risk appetite in construction megaprojects. Grounded in Complexity Theory and Institutional Theory, the study adopts a multi-method approach integrating thematic analysis, Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM), and MICMAC analysis. Risk appetite drivers were identified through a systematic literature review and validated by 30 experts from megaproject planning and execution domains. Findings reveal that risk appetite is governed by a dynamic network of organizational, institutional, behavioral, stakeholder, and external environmental factors rather than isolated managerial preferences. Institutional and external environment-related drivers exhibit highest driving power, whereas behavioral and stakeholder-related drivers function as critical linkage variables. Geopolitical uncertainty limited technical capability, high internal stakeholder pressure, weak community support, and firm size emerged as most influential drivers affecting strategic project selection decisions.