Warming‐Driven Shifts in the Phenology of Chilo suppressalis (Walker) (Lepidoptera: Crambidae) in China and Implications for Rice Pest Management

As poikilothermic organisms, insects are highly susceptible to climate warming, but most relevant studies have adopted a single‐scale perspective and ignored spatial heterogeneity in pest phenological responses, resulting in insufficient understanding of regional phenological variations. To address this gap, the present work explored the multi‐scale phenological responses of Chilo suppressalis to climate warming at regional and provincial scales. Long‐term phenological datasets of C. suppressalis spanning 1970–2024 and corresponding temperature dates were compiled and matched. Interannual phenological trends of overwintering and subsequent‐generation adults were analysed via linear regression, and the correlations between phenological shifts and temperature variations were assessed using Pearson correlation analyses. Significant increases in annual and seasonal mean temperatures were observed across the five study regions over the 54‐year period, with the most prominent warming detected in Eastern China. Distinct spatial heterogeneity was identified in the phenological responses of C. suppressalis to climate warming, rather than a uniform phenological advance trend. At the regional scale, the first occurrence of overwintering adults advanced in Central China but delayed in Eastern China, while the population peak of subsequent‐generation adults advanced in Southern China but lagged significantly in Eastern China. At the provincial scale, divergent phenological responses were found across provinces, with an advanced population peak in Guangxi and a delayed peak in Zhejiang. Rising spring and annual mean temperatures were confirmed as the key factor driving the phenological advancement of C. suppressalis . This multi‐scale analysis clarifies the spatially heterogeneous phenological responses of C. suppressalis to climate warming, and its findings provide a reliable scientific reference for region‐specific pest monitoring and management in rice agroecosystems under climate change.