An Economic Analysis of the Universal Varicella Vaccination Program in the United States

Frequent varicella outbreaks with sizable impact on the US public health system have continued to occur despite the success of the country's 1-dose varicella vaccination program. The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recently recommended adding a routine second dose of varicella vaccine and weighed economic projections as well as public health goals in their deliberations. This decision-tree-based analysis was conducted to evaluate the economic impact of the projected 2-dose varicella vaccination program as well as the existing 1-dose program. The analysis used population-based vaccination coverage and disease incidence data to make projections for a hypothetical US birth cohort of 4,100,000 infants born in 2006. Compared with no vaccination, both the 1-dose program (societal benefit-cost ratio [BCR], 4.37) and 2-dose program (BCR, 2.73) were estimated to be cost saving from the societal perspective. Compared with the 1-dose program, the incremental second dose was not cost saving (societal incremental BCR, 0.56). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for the second dose was $343 per case prevented, or approximately $109,000 per quality-adjusted life-year saved, and these results were sensitive to assumptions about vaccine effectiveness and prices.