Mapping urban energy transitions: Decoding solar pv potential, energy burden, and socio-demographic dimensions in the athens metropolitan area

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Urban energy transitions require spatially explicit diagnostics that integrate renewable potential, consumption patterns, and socio-demographic determinants. This study presents a comprehensive framework for assessing rooftop photovoltaic (PV) adequacy, energy burden, and CO₂-equivalent emission savings across all municipalities in the Athens Metropolitan Area (AMA). Using high-resolution three-dimensional radiative modeling and Earth observation datasets, we estimate rooftop PV potential and electricity demand under a deep renovation scenario. Two key indicators—PV adequacy and energy burden—are analyzed in relation to area, population, density, building stock, income, and energy costs. Results reveal strong spatial heterogeneity: municipalities with larger geographic areas and lower population density exhibit higher PV adequacy and lower energy burden, while compact, high-density zones face elevated energy vulnerability. Approximately 24% of AMA households experience energy burden above the 10% threshold, disproportionately affecting 1.2 million residents. Full rooftop PV deployment could yield 1103 kt CO₂ savings, while a modest 10% deployment would halve the number of burdened municipalities. The study delineates targeted, geospatially informed solar planning and aligns with the United Nations’ SDG 7 and SDG 11, offering a transferable framework for sustainable urban planning and equitable energy transitions.