Are emissions and circularity targets compatible? Modeling tradeoffs for the Dutch energy system

Based on an expanded, material-focused energy system model of the Netherlands, we examined the interaction between emissions reduction and circularity, material-energy tradeoffs, and feasibility of meeting both targets by 2050. We find that non-biogenic direct material input is reduced by about 70% in the optimal net zero emissions scenario, via fossil fuel reductions, circularity, and material efficiency measures, even without a constraint on material use, providing evidence that circularity and emissions reduction goals require similar energy system investments up to a certain point. However, more stringent circularity targets lead to dramatic increases in system costs as scarce biogenic and renewable resources come under pressure. The combined emissions and circularity scenario has 17% higher costs than emissions reduction alone, and 36% higher costs than circularity alone. Biomass is critical, but additional end-of-life material and material efficiency options can alleviate the pressure for circular scenarios, when resources are used strategically, as can investments in electrification. The resulting scenarios provide insights into robust investments in a future energy system that can meet multiple societal goals.