The Influence of the Economy on Party Identification in the Reagan Years

Utilizing frequent measurements taken during a period of considerable economic volatility, our research explores how short-term fluctuations in partisanship have operated and continue to operate within a limited range before permanent realignment occurs. Specifically, we examine monthly fluctuations in the aggregate distribution of partisan identifiers between 1981 and 1986. We show that there were systematic changes in the partisan balance during the period, and confirm the MacKuen, Erikson, and Stimson (1989) finding that changes in presidential popularity account for some of the movement. Further, we detail economic influences on macropartisanship using objective indicators. The results show that both inflation and unemployment bear directly on the partisan balance, and that each exerts an indirect influence through presidential popularity.