Prediction of overall survival in pancreatic cancer based on a twenty-four-gene risk model associated with lymph node metastasi

Pancreatic adenocarcinoma (PAAD) is a leading cause of tumor-related mortality. Identifying potential prognostic risk genes is crucial for predicting the overall survival of PAAD patients. In this study, we constructed and validated a 24-gene risk score. This risk score stratifies PAAD patients into low-risk and high-risk groups. The model demonstrated excellent prognostic accuracy at different follow-up times (1-year AUC: 0.81, 2-year AUC: 0.85, 3-year AUC: 0.92). PAAD patients from 3 GEO datasets were categorized into low-risk and high-risk groups, with survival analysis revealed significant differences in survival rates between the 2 groups (P < .01). Multivariate analysis identified 2 independent risk factors, namely, N stage (HR 2.026, 95% CI 1.139-3.603, P = .016) and the 24-gene risk score (HR 0.239, 95% CI 0.148-0.385, P < .001). The performance of the nomogram in the TCGA database is commendable (AUC for 1-year, 2-year, and 3-year survival rates = 0.76, 0.77, and 0.86, respectively). In essence, our work establishes a 24-gene risk score and nomogram to facilitate clinicians in predicting the prognosis of individual PAAD patients.