Global agronomic suitability of Citrus sinensis for commercial production under CMIP6 climate scenarios

This study aims to map the global edaphoclimatic suitability for highly intensive commercial production of Citrus sinensis under current climate and future CMIP6 scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) across four time periods (2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2061–2080, and 2081–2100). Using a maximum entropy species distribution model (MaxEnt) trained with 11 selected climatic, edaphic, and topographic predictors, we achieved robust predictive skill (AUC ≈ 0.87; TSS ≈ 0.90 across 10 replicates). Minimum temperature of the coldest month emerged as the dominant constraint, followed by soil clay content, soil pH, and annual precipitation. Projections to 2081–2100 indicate a ~ 30% decline in total suitable area under SSP5-8.5, with strong regional contrasts: contractions in Brazil (− 61.5%) and India (− 50.7%) versus expansion in China (+ 67.6%); Europe increases by ~ 82% (~ + 63.8 Mha), while Africa and the Americas generally contract. Within today’s harvested citrus base (CropGrids mask), suitability shrinks sharply in the United States (− 99.2%), Brazil (− 45.5%), and Egypt (− 55.4%), but increases in China (+ 14.1%) and Italy (+ 14.7%). These results identify cold extremes as a primary limiting factor and reveal emerging high-latitude corridors, with implications for varietal choice, rootstock selection, cold protection, and strategic siting of new highly productive orchards. Our maps and metrics provide actionable baselines for adaptation planning in perennial citrus systems facing accelerating climate change.