Trading blows: a social network analysis of WTO trade disputes, 1995–2020

This paper examines the structure of WTO trade disputes (1995–2020) using social network analysis. We argue that the network of disputes is shaped by structural dependencies. We identify three key features: (1) sociality – countries that initiate disputes tend to continue doing so; (2) popularity – frequently targeted states remain vulnerable; (3) reciprocity – states often target their accusers. Using an Additive and Multiplicative Effects (AME) model, we confirm that social dynamics, in addition to country characteristics such as economic size alone, drive the initiation of disputes. Our findings highlight how WTO enforcement mechanisms produce a microcosm of social dynamics. Recent geopolitical shifts, such as the US blocking WTO appellate judges, suggest future challenges for trade governance.