Structural Evolution and Determinants of the Agricultural Machinery Trade Network Among RCEP Members: Implications for Sustainable Technology Diffusion and Supply-Chain Resilience

Using bilateral agricultural machinery trade data for 15 RCEP member states from 2004 to 2023, this study constructs a directed weighted network and applies social network analysis and the quadratic assignment procedure (QAP) to examine structural evolution, node positions, community patterns, and factors associated with bilateral trade ties. Network density increased from 0.467 to 0.962, average path length declined from 1.533 to 1.038, and betweenness centralization fell from 0.064 to 0.021, indicating denser connections, shorter potential transmission paths, and lower dependence on intermediary nodes. After 2020, China recorded the highest centrality, while Japan, the Republic of Korea, Australia, Singapore, and major ASEAN economies retained complementary positions. QAP results show positive associations of trade ties with GDP differences, common language, contiguity, and exchange-rate differences, and negative associations with water-resource differences, trade-structure differences, and institutional distance. These findings demonstrate a close relationship between trade networks, the diffusion of sustainable technologies, and regional supply chain resilience. Policy priorities include supplier diversification, compatible sustainability standards, lifecycle governance, regional repair and remanufacturing capacity, and inclusive access to machinery services.