The impact of climate change and economic development on the catches of small pelagic fisheries

Small pelagic fishes play a crucial role in marine food webs, providing significant ecological support services. They are the largest target group in global commercial fisheries, accounting for 30 % of the total catch. However, their population status and spatial distribution are highly susceptible to environmental changes and economic development. This study is based on fishing data for 11 small pelagic fisheries in a long-term time series from 1963 to 2021. By integrating various machine learning methods and generalized additive models, we quantitatively assess the impacts and differences of typical climate change events (ENSO and AMO) as well as economic development on the catches of different small pelagic fisheries. Our findings reveal the complex nonlinear and asymmetrical effects of ENSO, AMO, and economic development on the catches, with varying degrees of influence. Economic factors predominantly drive changes in the exploitation of small pelagic fisheries. ENSO, AMO, and their lagged effects significantly influence regional fisheries through teleconnections, with ENSO exerting a particularly pronounced impact on the southeastern Pacific area. While most species are adversely affected by the positive phases of climate change, extreme negative phases do not always benefit. This research provides a systematic understanding of the impacts of climate change and economic expansion on small pelagic fisheries, offering valuable insights for government policymakers and stakeholders to formulate scientific fishing strategies and mitigate the risks of fishery resource depletion. • Assessed the response of 11 small pelagic fishery catches to climate change and economic development. • ENSO, AMO, and economic development have complex nonlinear and asymmetric effects on fishery catches. • The lag time of ENSO and AMO has delayed cumulativeand hysteresis effect on the catch quantity. • Economic development is the main factor driving fluctuations in catch quantity. • Sustainable fisheries management decisions must balance ecological and socio-economic interests and climate change adaptation.