Ensemble modeling analysis reveals a 71% drop in cumulative emissions from steelmaking in Indiana, highlighting the critical role of wind and solar capacity expansion.
Amid global goals for industrial decarbonization, electrolytic hydrogen direct reduction of iron ore paired with electric arc furnaces offers a low-carbon alternative to blast furnace steelmaking, but imposes a substantial load on the electricity grid. Here, we utilize an ensemble framework to understand how proton exchange membrane electrolyzers and steel production facility energy demands impact grid load and capacity expansion. We discern considerable electricity demand for electrolysis, with plant operating conditions translating to significant differences in the electricity sources and emissions. For Indiana, the largest steel producer in the US, we observe up to a 71% drop in total cumulative emissions by 2050 under scenarios rich in both solar and wind electricity generation resources. Wind resources are instrumental in achieving these emission reductions compared to other low-carbon generation technologies. Insights from this framework serve as guidelines for developing cooptimized electrolyzer and grid integration strategies and are applicable to other industries incorporating hydrogen-based decarbonization technologies.
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Nath et al. (2025) studied this question.
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