Conservation potential of agricultural water conservation subsidies

A current policy subsidizes farmers to invest in improved on‐farm irrigation efficiency, expecting water to be conserved off farm. Contrary to expectation, water has been increasingly depleted in some regions after such improvements. This paper investigates the policy's failure to conserve water consistently by (1) formulating an economic model of irrigated crop production to determine a profit‐maximizing irrigator's range of responses to a subsidy and (2) embedding these responses into hypothetical streamflow diagrams to ascertain their potential to conserve water under various hydrologic regimes. Testable hypotheses are developed to predict the conservation potential of a subsidy in real‐world application.