A multi-level conceptual system dynamics architecture for examining sustainability and resilience in coupled earth–space systems

Human societies are entering a period of converging pressures and emerging capabilities. Environmental degradation, climate change, urbanization, and resource constraints, together with global risks including technological threats, nuclear conflict, and asteroid impacts, are exposing the vulnerability of a civilization concentrated on a single planet. Concurrently, advances in launch systems, robotics, and space infrastructure are expanding the feasibility of large-scale human activity beyond Earth. Research on Large-Scale Space Migration (LSSM), here defined as a system-level process involving the redistribution of populations, resources, and infrastructure across terrestrial and off-world environments within the solar system, remains fragmented across disciplines. This paper proposes an exploratory, multi-level conceptual system dynamics architecture for examining how large-scale human expansion may reshape the dynamics of an Earth–space socioecological system, including both adaptive and maladaptive trajectories. The framework comprises three interacting levels: (i) a Level I material and infrastructure layer encompassing population dynamics, resource systems, environmental processes, economic activity, space infrastructure, and Earth–space flows; (ii) a Level II governance layer representing institutional structures and trade-offs among liberty, equality, and security; and (iii) a Level III psychological and social layer capturing social adaptation and collective response through aggregate variables such as perceived system security, institutional legitimacy, and social cohesion. The Level I material and infrastructure layer has been developed as an initial system dynamics prototype, providing a methodological foundation for Levels II and III, which are proposed as future extensions. The framework is intended to support scenario analysis, hypothesis generation, and staged model development rather than prediction.