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March 12, 2020Journal of Travel MedicineOpen Access

High population densities catalyse the spread of COVID-19

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Authors

JRJoacim RocklövHeidelberg UniversityHSHenrik SjödinHeidelberg University

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Implication

Epidemiological perspective demonstrates that elevated population density accelerates SARS-CoV-2 transmission in communities, indicating that contact tracing alone cannot contain outbreaks.

Key Points

  • To evaluate the impact of high population density and contact rates on SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics and assess the limits of contact tracing alone in epidemic control.
  • Synthesized transmission model estimates comparing epidemic control thresholds under variable basic reproduction numbers (R0).
  • Analyzed high-density confinement models and outbreak data, specifically comparing the quarantined Diamond Princess cruise ship to urban community settings.
  • Transmission modeling indicates that controlling an outbreak with an R0 of 1.5 requires tracing 50% of contacts, whereas an R0 of 3.5 requires tracing 90% of contacts, thresholds further degraded by presymptomatic and asymptomatic transmission.
  • The Diamond Princess cruise ship presented a population density and pre-intervention R0 estimated to be four times higher than initial levels in Wuhan.
  • Observational estimates identified only one in four COVID-19 cases in Italy, confirming that contact tracing cannot succeed without measures that directly reduce population density and contact rates.

Cite This Study

Rocklöv et al. (2020) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a7993a702ab7a73dd026c42https://doi.org/10.1093/jtm/taaa038
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